Latest News

Voters in Arkansas, Illinois, Maine, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio are more likely to vote for their US Senator if their Senator votes in favor of requiring background checks at gun shows, according to comprehensive new polls from Project New America (PNA).

This data shows there is also a break between GOP voters and the party’s political leadership on this issue. In all seven states, majorities of GOP voters favor background checks. And background checks are supported by voters who view the NRA favorably in every state. “We’ve seen strong nationwide numbers on background checks for years. This data shows that in key Senate swing states, voters overwhelmingly support expanding background checks,” said PNA President Jill Hanauer. "We are seeing Washington DC finally catching up with the American public on the issue of background checks."

Between Thursday and Sunday, PNA interviewed over 5,000 Americans in some of the most conservative, rural states with high rates of gun ownership and US Senators from both parties that have strong ratings from the NRA. After recent announcements of support from Senators Susan Collins (R-ME) and Kay Hagan (D-NC), this data suggests that voters in these states agree.

Working with noted pollster Anzalone Grove Liszt Research, PNA surveyed two of the key Democratic Senate seats up in 2014 – Arkansas and North Carolina.  PNA also surveyed five of the moderate Republican senate seats in Illinois, Maine, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Ohio with Public Policy Polling.

This set of polls represents the largest dataset of opinion research in these key Senate seats – and clear evidence that the new bipartisan agreement for background checks has strong public support.

Interesting State Datapoints - More Available In State Memos:

In North Carolina, 69% of Independent voters favor expanding checks. And 48% are more likely to vote for their US Senator if their Senator votes in favor, compared to only 25% less likely to support.

In Maine, 90% of women support background checks. And 76% are more likely to vote for their US Senator if their Senator votes in favor, compared to only 14% less likely.

In Arkansas, 62% of GOP voters favor background checks with even higher support from Democrats and Independents. And 45% of GOP voters say they would be more likely to vote for their US Senator if their Senator votes in favor while only 35% say less likely.

In Ohio, 85% of African Americans, 66% of Hispanics and 57% of white voters favor background checks. All three groups are 60% or more likely to support their US Senator if their Senator votes in favor.

David Winkler, PNA’s Research Director, said: “Looking to 2014 and beyond, the GOP leadership should note that key voters they need to win strongly support this measure – especially women, independents and even gun owners.”

“There is no grey area here. Voters in these states overwhelmingly support strengthening background checks at gun shows and want their senators to vote to expand them. Regardless of party, or whether they own a gun or not, these voters support expanding background checks,” said pollster John Anzalone.

State Poll Methodology is attached to each memo.
Project New America (PNA) is a private company that provides candidates, advocacy organizations, and civic engagement stakeholders the tools and strategies to understand and communicate with rapidly changing America.

Anzalone Liszt Grove Research is widely recognized as one of the premier survey research firms in the country. It polled in nine states for the Obama campaign, including the critical states of Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Virginia. It also has had a depth of success electing Democrats in tough states and districts, winning more Republican-held seats at the federal level over the past four cycles than any other polling firm. And New York Times columnist and polling guru, Nate Silver, recently dubbed it one of the three most accurate pollsters in America.

Over the last 5 years, Public Policy Polling (PPP) has built a reputation as one of the most accurate polling companies in the country. In 2012 it was the only public polling company to correctly predict the winner of every swing state in the Presidential race, and a Fordham University study ranked it as having the most accurate national polling as well. In 2010 PPP was the first polling company to pick up on the shocking victories of Scott Brown in the Massachusetts Senate race and Christine O’Donnell in the Delaware Republican Senate primary, and in 2008 the Wall Street Journal ranked PPP as one of the two most accurate swing state polling companies in the country.

PNA President Jill Hanauer writes about what new Florida poll results mean for GOP leaders like Sen. Marco Rubio. 

Project New America and Keating Research recently completed a statewide live operator telephone survey of Colorado voters. 

Voters were offered the option to chose between two opposing statements on immigration: one in support of reform that includes a pathway to citizenship and the other which opposes reform, amnesty and citizenship.

 It's clear that CO voters will strongly support immigration solutions that include a pathway to citizenship, such as the recent immigration reform proposals from President Barack Obama and the bipartisan Senate group including Colorado Senator Michael Bennet. 

Key findings include:

66% of voters agree that "there should be a pathway for immigrants who are here without legal status to earn citizenship  if they are of good character, pay taxes, and are committed to becoming fully participating members of our society."

• Support crosses party lines with 88% of Democrats, 67% of unaffiliated voters, and 44% of Republicans agreeing.
• White (63%) and Hispanic (88%) voters support the reform statement.

Project New America and Keating Research recently completed a statewide live operator telephone survey of Colorado voters. We asked several questions to measure voter opinions about gun laws.

Key findings include:

On the general question of whether voters want stricter gun laws,
55% are in favor and only 40% opposed.

Support crosses party lines with a majority of Democrats (75%) and unaffiliated voters (59%) and a third of all Republican voters favoring stricter gun laws.

Support is extremely high in the key suburban swing counties (Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Douglas, and  Jefferson) - 59% of voters favor stricter gun laws. Importantly, 68% of women and 67% of unaffiliated voters in those counties are in favor of stricter laws.

Voters are even more favorable towards specific policies currently being discussed in Colorado:

• 95% favor preventing people with serious mental health problems from owning a gun.
• 80% favor requiring all private gun sales to go through a licensed dealer, and be subject to a background check
• 65% favor prohibiting guns on college campuses
• 61% favor banning high-capacity ammunition clips and assault rifles

These survey results confirm that large majorities of the state's voters are in agreement with recent statements on gun violence by Colorado Governor Hickenlooper and Senators Mark Udall and Michael Bennet.

Governor Hickenlooper's State of the State address, January 10th, 2013

"Our record of addressing difficult problems together makes it possible to discuss gun violence and mental health. There are no easy solutions. Some point to guns, others to a violent culture. Still others believe that the line between community security and individual freedom must be re-drawn. We shouldn't be restrained from discussing any of these issues. Our democracy demands this type of debate. Let me prime the pump: Why not have universal background checks for all gun sales?  After Columbine, Colorado voters insisted that gun show sales be regulated, and launched an aggressive effort to prevent school bullying. We have shown in Colorado that we can learn from tragedy and make changes. Surely, Second Amendment advocates and gun control supporters can find common ground in support of this proposition: Let's examine our laws and make the changes needed to keep guns out of the hands of dangerous people. It's not enough to prevent dangerous people from getting weapons."

Senator Mark Udall, January 16th, 2013

"I wish I could say that enforcement of our current laws has been sufficient at keeping our children safe, but that simply is not the case. For example, while Colorado has a storied tradition of gun ownership, I am not certain that owning high-capacity ammunition clips or weapons made for the battlefield are necessarily part of that heritage. I will continue to work with my colleagues and Coloradans - of all political stripes - to discuss concrete steps we can take to help prevent dangerous guns from falling into the wrong hands."

Senator Michael Bennet, December 19th, 2012

"The shooters in Aurora and Newtown should not have had access to the guns or magazines they used. I believe a combination of improved access to mental health services, restrictions on certain weapons intended for the battlefield, and elimination of the gun show loophole are sensible steps that can reduce our children's risk. In Colorado, we support the 2nd Amendment right to bear arms, we support the ability of people to hunt and recreate and to protect their families and homes, and we want to keep the wrong weapons out of the hands of the wrong people."